Here are our AFL picks for Friday 31 July 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Port Adelaide Power vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 40.5 team_totals_h1, priced at -112 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Port Adelaide Power vs Greater Western Sydney Giants: Under 40.5 team_totals_h1 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Port Adelaide Power are set to clash with the Greater Western Sydney Giants at the historic Adelaide Oval. When we analyze the recent performances of these two teams, a compelling narrative emerges. The Power, known for their defensive prowess, have been stingy at home, conceding an average of just 79.8 points in their last five home games. On the other hand, the Giants have shown resilience on the road, limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities with an impressive average of 46.4 inside 50s per game. Moreover, the Giants have been disciplined in their shot selection, averaging 24.8 shots at goal away from home. This disciplined approach has translated into a solid defensive record, with an average of only 83.6 points conceded per game on the road. With these trends in mind, the under 40.5 in the Team Totals H1 market for the Giants seems like a shrewd play, given their defensive solidity and the Power's tendency to grind out low-scoring affairs.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright footy punters, let's dissect this clash between the Hawthorn Hawks and the North Melbourne Kangaroos at UTAS Stadium. The Hawks have been soaring lately, especially at home, averaging 105.2 points in their last five outings overall. With an average of 61.4 inside 50s and 32.4 shots at goal in their recent games, they have been a scoring machine. On the flip side, the Kangaroos have shown some teeth defensively, conceding an average of 80.2 points overall. In their last five away games, they have held opponents to 93.6 points on average. This clash sets the stage for a battle of offensive prowess against defensive resilience. Considering the Hawks' scoring form against the Kangaroos' solid defensive record, backing the 'Under 53.5' in the Team Totals H1 market for Hawthorn seems like a savvy play, given the potential for a tightly contested first half.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When St Kilda Saints clash with the Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive showdown. St Kilda, known for their gritty performances, are averaging 82 points in their last five games at home, while the Sydney Swans have been conceding an average of 101.2 points on the road. This stark contrast hints at a low-scoring affair. With St Kilda's solid defensive record of only allowing 72 points on average in their recent outings and the Swans struggling to crack the 90-point mark, the under 181.5 total points bet appears enticing. Expect a fierce battle where goals are hard to come by, making the under a smart play in this matchup.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Essendon Bombers are set to light up Marvel Stadium against the Adelaide Crows, and all signs point to fireworks in the first quarter. In their recent home games, the Bombers have been relentless, averaging 47 Inside50s and 20 Shotsatgoal. Their hunger for goals is evident, bagging an average of 9.2 majors per game. With an average of 62.8 points scored at home, Essendon doesn't hold back. On the flip side, Adelaide's defense has been leaky on the road, conceding an average of 74 points per game. Their overall Points Against sits at 77.4, indicating vulnerability. The stage is set for Essendon to come out firing and kick through the big sticks with gusto. Expect the Bombers to snag a healthy total in the first quarter, making the Over 15.5 a tantalizing bet.
Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows: Under 52.5 team_totals_h1 (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The clash between Essendon Bombers and Adelaide Crows at Marvel Stadium promises a tactical battle, with a compelling case for the Under 52.5 in the Team Totals H1 market favoring the Crows. Recently, Adelaide has been relentless on the road, averaging 52.8 Inside50s and 22.2 Shotsatgoal per game in their last five away fixtures. While the Bombers have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 104.8 points in their last five overall games, the Crows have been more clinical, limiting opponents and scoring an average of 86.2 points away. This paints a picture of a disciplined Adelaide side ready to stifle Essendon's attack, making the Under an enticing proposition for savvy punters seeking value in a game where every possession counts.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Gold Coast Suns hosting the Melbourne Demons at People First Stadium promises a riveting clash. Recent form suggests a defensive battle brewing, with the Suns averaging 85 points for and conceding 92 in their last five home games. Meanwhile, the Demons have been solid on the road, scoring 88.8 points and allowing just 80.6 on average. Both teams have shown prowess in limiting opposition shots at goal, with the Demons boasting 30.4 shots per game overall, while the Suns have restricted teams to 26.6 shots in their home fixtures. With both sides showcasing defensive resilience and disciplined shot suppression, the under 89.5 in the first half total points market looks appealing for footy punters eyeing a tight, low-scoring affair.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
See All Our Picks
You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.
Unlock all picks